July 18, 2008 10:14

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aol-electoral-map.png

We really like interesting ways of thinking about the electoral process. Sometimes, we’re also amused by disastrous failures in the same arena.

The above image comes from AOL’s Political Machine. To see the results, you need to vote by entering your state of residence and which of the two major candidates you’re voting for. Once you’ve voted, you’re presented with the results map.

The poll results, in effect since July 14, show McCain winning every single state and taking 67% of the popular vote. This strikes me as highly suspect, given that virtually every reputable poll conducted in the past several months has predicted a close race, and many put Obama in the lead. There’s lots to be said here about selection bias and sampling methods (and, probably, about ballot stuffing), but we’ll skip it for now.

What’s really mind-blowing is the pair of “view results by candidate” maps. All you’re ever asked for as a poll participant is your state of residence. How, then, do they have the data to create a finely gridded electoral map? If they’re doing IP lookups, why did they ask for a state of residence? If they’re not doing an IP lookup, are they just making the data up?

Also puzzling: the vast majority of “sectors” on the per-candidate map appear to be won by both candidates. Basically the entire north half of the country appears to have exactly the same dot patterns, but in different colors for the different candidates. Things are a little bit different in the Gulf area, but there’s still substantial overlap. Weird. (Update: this is shown in more detail in this follow-up post). Also, AOL seems to think that the only four important pieces of information about the candidates are their hometowns, number of years in office, marital status, and age.

As a side note, the tagline for the Political Machine is “cranking 24/7 to sort the spin.” There’s some serious irony there. They’re trying to cut through the “spin.” With a rotating motion. Oops.

(Thanks, Lee!)

Full disclosure: the above images were altered to remove the “you voted for…” tag that was in the upper left corner of all of the maps. Please fax pitchforks and torches to our complaints office.


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